A bumper crop tonight: Crewe South Ward, Cheshire East UA. Result to follow. Uwchaled Ward, Conwy CBC. Ind gain from PC. Ind 477 (94.1%), Con 30 (5.9%). No swing calculation possible as PC uncontested in 2008. Eckington Division, Derbyshire CC. Result to follow. Abbey Ward, Dumfries & Galloway CC. Result to follow. Arlechwedd Ward, Gwynedd CC. PC gain from LD. PC 255 (56%, +8.8), LD 93 (20.4%,...

Crewe and Nantwich is only one of almost 650 constituencies on the political map of the UK. But the by-election there in May 2008 holds important lessons for the upcoming General Election. This is a review of the campaign, and which tactics might feature again over the next couple of months

During the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, Labour rolled out its ‘Tory Toffs’ campaign. It was nasty and Gordon Brown distanced himself from it, although I did not believe the prime minister was out of the loop on this. I was called a toff too, which made me laugh. Being the son of a former railwayman from Co Durham, I am the last person you could accuse of being a toff. Labour’s...

I seem to very good at underestimating Tory support in by-elections. When I was canvassing in Crewe last year, i knew we were going to win, but I never got the feeling it would be by quite as much. Although I have not participated in the campaign in Norwich, I have been keeping up-to-date as a friend of mine has been actively campaigning in Norwich North. He told me a couple of weeks ago the Labou...

Two quick observations: a) The swing to the Conservatives was massive, roughly duplicating the Crewe & Nantwich result. It's one thing for third parties to record huge swings in by-elections that are not repeated at General Elections. It's quite another...

A massive 16.5 swing, not far short of what they got in Crewe and Nantwich, will allow the Conservatives to say that this is much better than the results I alluded to in my earlier post. Labour, on the other hand, will point out that the swing originated largely from a collapse in their vote (-27%) and much less by an increase in the Tory vote (just 6.5%). The truth is that Mr Cameron has done mor...

Here's my guide to what the main parties are likely to say about the by-election and what they really mean. Conservatives: "It's a historic victory. Norwich has voted for change. It's time the country had that chance." Translation: "Phew. We just had to win here or people would say the wheels were coming off Project Cameron. We always knew this wasn't going to be a Crewe and Na...

People have said, of late, this it is now the Conservatives who have the best by-election team and how impressive the efforts were; notably in Crewe and Henley. Today I spent the afternoon leafleting for Chloe Smith in the City as part of the pre-campaign work. And boy was I amazed. Now I have known our HQ in the Christ Church Centre for a lot of years; through the good years and the bad ones, but...

Ian Gibson announced his resignation as an MP on Friday with immediate effect. One imagines he will take the Chiltern Hundreds on Monday and this should immediately trigger a by-election. But when will Brown move the writ so the by-election can take place? Casting my mind back just over a year ago, Brown moved the writ for the Crewe and Nantwich by-election while Gwyneth Dunwoody was still warm. B...

From The Crewe Chronicle: A FATHER returning to his Crewe home with his baby found it had been repossessed and the locks changed in an amazing blunder by Chelsea Building Society. Matthew Brooks had just picked up one-year-old Loren from the childminder when he spotted a notice on the door of his house in Benjafield Court. "... we’d been broken into because the Chelsea Building Society had g...